Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator Sees Notable Increase in July 2026

In July 2026, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator experienced a significant increase of 6.7 points, reaching a level of 44.2 points. This positive shift reflects growing optimism among participants regarding the economic landscape.

A closer look reveals that the current conditions component surged by 8.1 points, now standing at 36.9 points. Additionally, the expectations component rose by 6.1 points to 47.9 points, suggesting that the general outlook is improving.

Despite this optimism, 84% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the national currency, with an estimated average exchange rate of 5.3445 lei per euro over the next 12 months. The expected inflation rate for this period has decreased to 6.32%, indicating a slight easing of price pressures.

Moreover, participants have forecasted the state budget deficit for 2026 to average 6.2% of GDP, while public debt is projected to be at 63% of GDP in the upcoming year. Economic growth predictions hover around the 0% mark, reflecting cautious expectations for the future.

In terms of the energy market, participants expect an average price of Brent crude oil to be around 87 dollars per barrel. When it comes to the residential real estate market, 69% foresee price stagnation in the next 12 months, with 74% considering current real estate values to be overestimated. Only 11% view property prices as fairly valued, indicating a widespread concern about housing affordability.

Adrian Codirlaşu, President of CFA Romania, emphasizes the importance of these indicators in understanding the prevailing economic sentiments. As Romania navigates its economic challenges, these insights provide valuable perspectives on the path ahead.